How has El Nino affected Steamboat in the past?

Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Baggzy on October 8, 2009 at 6:03am

Quite. 1992 looks pretty grim too, from the data I have. But the amount of snowfall has been rising steadily over the years, averaging 330 inches now compared to about 250 inches back in 1980. The top of the range is now around 500 inches and the bottom around 200 inches. Assuming that history is any guide, of course. And that me saying this hasn't put the curse on it.

▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Baggzy on October 7, 2009 at 5:33am

Hi all! Well I've done some analysis of Steamboat's historic snowfall versus the NOAO Multivariate ENSO Index (which indicates El Nino conditions when above +1 and La Nina when below -1). My analysis suggests that if it's a moderate El Nino (with MEI around 0.6 to 1) then:

- November should be pretty good, with around 70 inches +/- 10 inches of snowfall. This would corroborate the anecdotal stories you'll hear that El Nino causes more snow early season. November actually looks much better in El Nino seasons than La Nina seasons, despite the fact that total season snowfall is lower. The odd thing is that this phenomenon seems to have developed over the last 20 years. Before 1988 El Nino and La Nina snowfall were the same in November, at about 20 inches. Anyway, around 70 inches seems a pretty robust historical figure (except in La Nina seasons, which average around 30 inches of snowfall, but we definitely won't have La Nina this year).

-December should be pretty reasonable but definitely not epic. There's higher uncertainty, at around 60 inches +/- 30 inches, but El Nino has a strong effect on Dec snowfall so there's not much chance of anything over 90 inches unless the El Nino goes away completely. Hopefully we won't be unlucky and only get 30 inches!

- January is a bit of a lottery. La Nina years are definitely better than El Nino, but the spread is quite high, so you can still get good El Nino January's, or bad La Nina January's. Having said that, this has not been the case in the last 10 years. The last three El Nino's were all only 40-50 inches, and four of the last five La Nina's were 100-130 inches. So January is hard to predict. Assuming the last 10 years are anomolous, the 30 year average would suggest somewhere in the region of 70 inches +/- 30 inches. But if the last 10 years are the way it is now, we should expect 40-50 inches. If the El Nino goes away we could get alot more, or alot less. Some of the best and worst January's occur in "neutral" years.

- February seems to be completely unaffected by El Nino. Feb snowfall has been rising steadily over the last 30 years and now averages 80 inches +/- 20 inches. If this year is no different, Feb could be the best month.

- March is also unaffected by El Nino. Mar snowfall has been reasonably constant at around 55 inches +/- 15. The last two La Nina's were much higher, at 80 inches, but seem to be outliers.

- April is also unaffected by El Nino. The two most recent La Nina's were good, and the last El Nino was good too (all three coming in at about 50 inches) but generally the average is around 15 inches +/- 15 inches.

As a general observation I noticed that total snowfall over the season has gone up significantly over the last 30 years. It used to average around 250 inches, but is now closer to 330 inches. This 80 inches of extra snow seems to arrive evenly spread at 20 inches extra per month from Nov-Feb (except Nov in La Nina years and Dec in El Nino years). March shows evidence of a drop in average snowfall 79-99 and an increase since then, while April is unchanged apart from the last 3 years being unusually good.

Having said all that, the CPC forecasts were for the MEI to increase and last through the winter, but the latest reading had dropped from 0.98 to 0.75 so it seems to be weakening. Maybe it won't be an El Nino year after all...

▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by skisteamboat on October 22, 2009 at 6:05am

Thanks for the info.

Cheers

▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by DamonWX on October 13, 2009 at 5:10pm

Baggzy: Job well done on the research stuff. I am impressed.

▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by Baggzy on October 22, 2009 at 5:46am

Thank you. :-) Latest update is that the El Nino conditions appear to be strengthening again in October...

▶ Reply to This

Permalink Reply by DamonWX on November 2, 2009 at 3:20pm

Latest observation of El Nino is that it is strengthening both at the surface and under water as well. A "Kelvin wave" is moving across The Pacific. It's not a fast mover, but none the less it is something that climatologists are paying attention to. And, I know what you're saying...what in the world is a Kelvin wave. It' basically a wave of warmer sea temperatures that can be seen moving across. El Nino will play a role in the Nation's weather...but...just how much remains still to be seen

▶ Reply to This

• First
• Previous
• Next
• Last