How has El Nino affected Steamboat in the past?

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Permalink Reply by Baggzy on October 8, 2009 at 6:03am

Quite. 1992 looks pretty grim too, from the data I have. But the amount of snowfall has been rising steadily over the years, averaging 330 inches now compared to about 250 inches back in 1980. The top of the range is now around 500 inches and the bottom around 200 inches. Assuming that history is any guide, of course. And that me saying this hasn't put the curse on it.

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Permalink Reply by Baggzy on October 7, 2009 at 5:33am

Hi all! Well I've done some analysis of Steamboat's historic snowfall versus the NOAO Multivariate ENSO Index (which indicates El Nino conditions when above +1 and La Nina when below -1). My analysis suggests that if it's a moderate El Nino (with MEI around 0.6 to 1) then:

- November should be pretty good, with around 70 inches +/- 10 inches of snowfall. This would corroborate the anecdotal stories you'll hear that El Nino causes more snow early season. November actually looks much better in El Nino seasons than La Nina seasons, despite the fact that total season snowfall is lower. The odd thing is that this phenomenon seems to have developed over the last 20 years. Before 1988 El Nino and La Nina snowfall were the same in November, at about 20 inches. Anyway, around 70 inches seems a pretty robust historical figure (except in La Nina seasons, which average around 30 inches of snowfall, but we definitely won't have La Nina this year).

-December should be pretty reasonable but definitely not epic. There's higher uncertainty, at around 60 inches +/- 30 inches, but El Nino has a strong effect on Dec snowfall so there's not much chance of anything over 90 inches unless the El Nino goes away completely. Hopefully we won't be unlucky and only get 30 inches!

- January is a bit of a lottery. La Nina years are definitely better than El Nino, but the spread is quite high, so you can still get good El Nino January's, or bad La Nina January's. Having said that, this has not been the case in the last 10 years. The last three El Nino's were all only 40-50 inches, and four of the last five La Nina's were 100-130 inches. So January is hard to predict. Assuming the last 10 years are anomolous, the 30 year average would suggest somewhere in the region of 70 inches +/- 30 inches. But if the last 10 years are the way it is now, we should expect 40-50 inches. If the El Nino goes away we could get alot more, or alot less. Some of the best and worst January's occur in "neutral" years.

- February seems to be completely unaffected by El Nino. Feb snowfall has been rising steadily over the last 30 years and now averages 80 inches +/- 20 inches. If this year is no different, Feb could be the best month.

- March is also unaffected by El Nino. Mar snowfall has been reasonably constant at around 55 inches +/- 15. The last two La Nina's were much higher, at 80 inches, but seem to be outliers.

- April is also unaffected by El Nino. The two most recent La Nina's were good, and the last El Nino was good too (all three coming in at about 50 inches) but generally the average is around 15 inches +/- 15 inches.

As a general observation I noticed that total snowfall over the season has gone up significantly over the last 30 years. It used to average around 250 inches, but is now closer to 330 inches. This 80 inches of extra snow seems to arrive evenly spread at 20 inches extra per month from Nov-Feb (except Nov in La Nina years and Dec in El Nino years). March shows evidence of a drop in average snowfall 79-99 and an increase since then, while April is unchanged apart from the last 3 years being unusually good.

Having said all that, the CPC forecasts were for the MEI to increase and last through the winter, but the latest reading had dropped from 0.98 to 0.75 so it seems to be weakening. Maybe it won't be an El Nino year after all...

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Permalink Reply by skisteamboat on October 22, 2009 at 6:05am

Thanks for the info.

Cheers

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Permalink Reply by Baggzy on November 29, 2009 at 5:02pm

Well, November certainly didn't reach the 70 inch total that it has historically. Which suggests that this El Nino is not typical of past El Nino's. Or is a statistical outlier. Either way, it looks like we're not going to get any clues from the past about how this season is likely to shape up. On the plus side, this could be good news since Dec & Jan are typically quite poor in El Nino seasons. Hopefully this season will be different. Especially when I'm in the Boat in the third week of Jan! :-)

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Permalink Reply by Ebin Latrimurti on January 17, 2010 at 1:54am

"On the plus side, this could be good news since Dec & Jan are typically quite poor in El Nino seasons."

Well the Straight Talkers are making things sound just fine....from what I've heard, Steamboat is enduring some horrible conditions at the moment (as is much of N. CO.) 3 weeks till I get there...I hope and pray the above quote is accurate and you fella's get a good 10 feet of so before I get there!!

Ride safe.. see ya soon!! :)

Aloha,
Ebin

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Permalink Reply by Baggzy on January 17, 2010 at 4:11am

Hi Ebin,

Well, November didn't turn out as I'd expected, but Dec and Jan were about what you'd expect in a bad El Nino year, and seem to continue the trend of recent El Nino's, which were all pretty bad. But you might be ok in the second week of Feb. The historic data shows no correlation between El Nino and Feb snowfall, so Steamboat should get about 80 inches +/- 20 or 30 inches in Feb. The last three El Nino's (02-03, 04-05, and 06-07) were grim in Jan (about 40 inches) but produced 93, 49, and 97 inches in Feb. But La Nina and neutral years also produce snowfall in that range in Feb, so El Nino isn't a factor.

It could be a complete lottery, of course. The snowfall in Whistler is unprecedented, so who knows? But for what it's worth I've attached the graphs of my analysis so you can see why I reached the conclusions I did. The orange points are El Nino years, green are La Nina, and grey are neutral. The red circle/oval is the range of what I thought we could expect this season... The scatter of points is high, so the range of possibilities is high, but you can at least get a feel for what it might be. Anyway, take a look at the text of my original post and then have a look at the graphs attached to see why I said what I said.

Hope that helps, and fingers crossed that you get an epic first & second week!

I had to cancel my trip due to ill health (I should have been there now...), but will go next season for sure.... so I'm praying that next year isn't an El Nino!

Cheers, G.

Attachments:

• Steamboat_Nov.jpg, 32 KB
• Steamboat_Jan.jpg, 36 KB
• Steamboat_Feb.jpg, 32 KB

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Permalink Reply by Baggzy on January 17, 2010 at 4:37am

Sorry, when I said "original post" I should have said my post of 07 October 2009...

For anyone who's interested, I've attached the graphs for Dec, Mar and Apr to this post.

Attachments:

• Steamboat_Dec.jpg, 36 KB
• Steamboat_Mar.jpg, 32 KB
• Steamboat_Apr.jpg, 30 KB

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Permalink Reply by DamonWX on October 13, 2009 at 5:10pm

Baggzy: Job well done on the research stuff. I am impressed.

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Permalink Reply by Baggzy on October 22, 2009 at 5:46am

Thank you. :-) Latest update is that the El Nino conditions appear to be strengthening again in October...

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Permalink Reply by DamonWX on November 2, 2009 at 3:20pm

Latest observation of El Nino is that it is strengthening both at the surface and under water as well. A "Kelvin wave" is moving across The Pacific. It's not a fast mover, but none the less it is something that climatologists are paying attention to. And, I know what you're saying...what in the world is a Kelvin wave. It' basically a wave of warmer sea temperatures that can be seen moving across. El Nino will play a role in the Nation's weather...but...just how much remains still to be seen

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Permalink Reply by Baggzy on December 26, 2009 at 10:41am

Hi all. Alas, all my plans and research will go unrewarded this year - I have to cancel my trip due to ill health. But thank you to all those who responded, and I will see you next season instead! Wishing you all a fantastic year and I'll be back to bother you again soon. :-)

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